More and more I'm convinced that America right now isn't a country dealing with a mere dip in its mood and might. It's a country surrendering to a new identity and era, in which optimism is quaint and the frontier anything but endless.
There's a feeling of helplessness that makes the political horizon, including the coming midterm elections, especially unpredictable.
Conventional wisdom has seldom been so useless, because pessimism in this country isn't usually this durable or profound.
Americans are apprehensive about where they are and even more so about where they're going. But they don't see anything or anyone to lead them into the light.
They're sour on the president, on the Democratic Party and on Republicans most of all. They're hungry for hope but don't spot it on the menu. Where that tension leaves us is anybody's guess.
Much of this was chillingly captured by a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll from early August that got lost somewhat amid the recent deluge of awful news but deserved closer attention.
It included the jolting finding that 76 per cent of Americans ages 18 and older weren't confident that their children's generation would fare better than their own.
That's a blunt repudiation of the very idea of America, of what the "land of opportunity" is supposed to be about. For most voters, the national narrative is no longer plausible.
The poll also showed that 71 per cent thought that the country was on the
While that represents a spike, it also affirms a negative mind-set that's been fixed for a scarily long time. As the Democratic strategist Doug Sosnik has repeatedly noted, more Americans have been saying "wrong track" than "right track" for at least a decade now, and something's got to give.
But to what or whom can Americans turn?
In the most recent of Sosnik's periodic assessments of the electorate, published in Politico last month, he wrote: "It is difficult to overstate the depth of the anger and alienation that a majority of all Americans feel toward the federal government."
He cited a Gallup poll in late June that showed that Americans' faith in each of the three branches had dropped to what he called "near record lows," with only 30 per cent expressing confidence in the Supreme Court, 29 per cent in the presidency and 7 per cent in Congress.
The intensity of Americans' disgust with Congress came through in another recent poll, by ABC News and The Washington Post.
Typically, Americans lambaste the institution as a whole but make an exception for the politician representing their district.
But in this poll, for the first time in the 25 years that ABC and The Post had been asking the question, a majority of respondents — 51 per cent — said that they disapproved even of the job that their own House member was doing.
Conventional wisdom says that President Obama's anaemic approval ratings will haunt Democrats. But it doesn't take into account how effectively some Republicans continue to sully their party's image.
It doesn't factor in how broadly Americans' disapproval spreads out.
Conventional wisdom says that better unemployment and job-creation numbers could save Democrats. But many Americans aren't feeling those improvements.
When asked in the Journal/NBC poll if the country was in a recession — which it's not — 49 per cent of respondents said yes, while 46 per cent said no.
The new jobs don't feel as sturdy as the old ones. It takes more hours to make the same money or support the same lifestyle.
Students amass debt. Upward mobility increasingly seems a mirage, a myth.
"People are mad at Democrats," John Hickenlooper, the Democratic governor of Colorado, told me. "But they're certainly not happy with Republicans.
They're mad at everything." That's coming from the leader of a state whose unemployment rate is down to 5.3 per cent. And it suggests that this isn't just about the economy. It's about fear. It's about impotence.
We can't calm the world in the way we'd like to, can't find common ground and peace at home, can't pass needed laws, can't build necessary infrastructure, can't, can't, can't. In the Journal/NBC poll, 60 per cent of Americans said that we were a nation in decline.
How sad. Sadder still was this: Nowhere in the survey was there any indication that they saw a method or a messenger poised to arrest it.
The New York Times News Service