One thing I learned covering the Middle East for many years is that there is "the morning after" and there is "the morning after the morning after." Never confuse the two. The morning after a big event is when people rush in and declare that someone's victory or defeat in a single battle has "changed everything forever."
The morning after the morning after, the laws of gravity start to apply themselves; things often don't look as good or as bad as you thought. And that is what brings me to Vladimir Putin's annexation of the Crimean peninsula.
The morning after, he was the hero of Russia. Some moronic commentators here even expressed the wish that we had such a "decisive" leader. Well, let's see what Putin looks like the morning after the morning after, say, in six months. I make no predictions, but I will point out this. Putin is challenging three of the most powerful forces on the planet all at once: human nature, Mother Nature and Moore's Law. Good luck with that.
Putin's seizure of Crimea certainly underscores the enduring power of geography in geopolitics. Russia is a continental country, stretching across a huge landmass, with few natural barriers to protect it. Every Kremlin leader — from the czars to the commissars to the crooks — has been obsessed about protecting Russia's periphery from would-be invaders. Russia has legitimate security interests, but this episode is not about them.
This recent Ukraine drama did not start with geography — with an outside power trying to get into Russia, as much as Putin wants to pretend that it did. This story started with people inside Russia's orbit trying to get out.
A large number of Ukrainians wanted to hitch their economic future to the European Union not to Putin's Potemkin Eurasian Union. This story, at its core, was ignited and propelled by human nature — the enduring quest by people to realise a better future for themselves and their kids — not by geopolitics, or even that much nationalism. This is not an "invasion" story. This is an "Exodus" story.
And no wonder. A recent article in Bloomberg Businessweek noted that, in 2012, GDP per person in Ukraine was $6,394 — some 25 per cent below its level of nearly a quarter-century earlier.
But if you compare Ukraine with four of its former Communist neighbours to the west who joined the European Union — Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania — "the average GDP per person in those nations is around $17,000." Can you blame Ukrainians for wanting to join a different club?
But Putin is also counting on the world doing nothing about Mother Nature, and Mother Nature taking that in stride. Some 70 per cent of Russia's exports are oil and gas, and they make up half of all state revenue.
Putin has basically bet his country's economic present and future on hydrocarbons at a time when the chief economist of the International Energy Agency has declared that "about two-thirds of all proven reserves of oil, gas and coal will have to be left undeveloped if the world is to achieve the goal of limiting global warming at two degrees Celsius" since the Industrial Revolution.
Crossing that two-degree line, say climate scientists, will dramatically increase the likelihood of melting the Arctic, rising of sea level, disruptive super storms and unmanageable climate change.
The former Saudi oil minister, Shaikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani, once warned his OPEC colleagues something Putin should remember: "The Stone Age didn't end because we ran out of stones." It ended because we invented bronze tools, which were more productive.
The hydrocarbon age will also have to end with a lot of oil, coal and gas left in the ground, replaced by cleaner forms of power generation, or Mother Nature will have her way with us. Putin is betting otherwise. How do you say Moore's Law in Russian? That's the theorem posited by Gordon Moore, an Intel co-founder, that the processing power of microchips will double roughly every two years.
Anyone following the clean power industry today can tell you that there is something of a Moore's Law now at work around solar power, the price of which is falling so fast that more and more homes and even utilities are finding it as cheap to install as natural gas. Wind is on a similar trajectory, as is energy efficiency. China alone is on a track to be getting 15 per cent of its total electricity production by 2020 from renewables, and it's not stopping there.
If America and Europe were to give even just a little more policy push now to renewables to reduce Putin's oil income, these actions could pay dividends much sooner and much bigger than most people realise. The legitimacy of China's leaders today depends, in part, on their ability to make their country's power system greener so their people can breathe. Putin's legitimacy depends on keeping Russia and the world addicted to oil and gas.
Whom do you want to bet on? So, before we crown Putin the Time Person of the Year again, let's wait and see how the morning after the morning after plays out.
- The New York Times News Service