China set to be economic giant surpassing US in two decades



Washington:  China's economy is likely to surpass the United States in less than two decades while Asia will overtake North America and Europe combined in global power by 2030, a US intelligence report said.

"Meanwhile, the economies of Europe, Japan, and Russia are likely to continue their slow relative declines," it said.

The report, "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds," was issued by the National Intelligence Council, an analytical arm of the US government's Office of the Director of National Intelligence. In addition to US intelligence analysts, the report includes the views of foreign and private experts.

It is the fifth report of a series — the previous one was released in 2008 - that aims to stimulate "strategic thinking" among decision makers and not to predict the future. 

The health of the global economy increasingly will be linked to progress in the developing world rather than the traditional West, the report said. 

"As the world's largest economic power, China is expected to remain ahead of India, but the gap could begin to close by 2030," it said.

"India's rate of economic growth is likely to rise while China's slows. In 2030 India could be the rising economic powerhouse that China is seen to be today.

China's current economic growth rate — 8 to 10 per cent — will probably be a distant memory by 2030."

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