Times of Oman
Nov 26, 2015 LAST UPDATED AT 02:57 PM GMT
Oman's population set to rise by 2.4m by 2040
August 29, 2014 | 12:00 AM
313,000 will be the population of Muscat by 2040 as per the new report of National Centre for Statistics and Information with those in the 25 and 64 age group comprising 75.6% of it. Photo supplied

Muscat: The total population of the Sultanate is set to increase by 2.4 million in the period 2015–2040 adding to the present population of 4 million, as per National Centre for Statistics and Information's (NCSI) new report titled 'Population Projection in Sultanate of Oman 2015-2040'.

According to the 'Pan Arab Project for Family Health 2009' by the Population Reference Bureau, 'population projection' is an estimate of changes in the future population based on field data gathering where pre-existing data may be made to predict fertility, deaths and migration.

Predictions on the size and specifics of the future population are used by researchers, economists and official authorities as a key variable for future strategic planning, including issues related to workforce, housing, education, healthcare, etc.

Nation-wide population forecasts (based on fertility rates estimate by 2040) show that the total population of the Sultanate is set to increase by 2.4 million in the period 2015–2040.

The average age for Omanis in 2040 is expected to be 27, while the increase in population by gender is forecast to grow by 69 per cent for males and 72 per cent for females over the same period.

Meanwhile, fertility forecasts estimate that between 25 and 30 per cent of the population in 2040 will comprise of children under 15 years of age, while between 8 and 11 per cent of the total local population will be under five-year-old.

The 15 to 29 age group is expected to comprise 27 per cent in 2040, 3 per cent lower than the 2015 forecast figure.

The percentage of the population between 15 and 64 years of age will account for between 64 and 69 per cent of the total population.

The NCSI report also reveals that 45 per cent of Omani women will be of fertile age in 2040.
The number of dependents in 2040 is forecast to range between 45-56 for every 100 persons within the employment age.

The report indicates that Muscat's population is forecast to rise by 313,000 by 2040, with 75.6 per cent of those being aged between 25 and 64 years of age.

The number of people residing in Muscat aged below 30-year-old is expected to decrease by 13 per cent in 2040.

Meanwhile, Musandam will witness the lowest population increase nationwide with only 17,000 added by 2040. Additionally, 41 per cent of all people aged between 15 and 29 will be residing in Muscat or Al Batinah North by 2040.

The report also noted that Muscat, Al Batinah North and South, and Al Sharqiyah North together will account for 66 per cent of the age group below five-year-old in 2040.

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