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Coke deal risk bigger than Pepsi's; should pay off
Reuters
Sunday, February 28, 2010 12:44:36 PM Oman Time
 
 
 
 
 
NEW YORK: Coke may have followed Pepsi's lead with a very similar bottler deal, but the world's top soft drink maker faces greater risk in its unexpected return to the logistics side of its business.

Coca-Cola Co's surprise move to buy the North American operations of bottler Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc should improve its business in the long term, but it will change the investment profile of the world's largest soft drink maker and dilute some of the reasons for owning the stock in the first place.

That also applies to PepsiCo, which closed its purchase of Pepsi Bottling Group and PepsiAmericas Inc on Friday.

But Wall Street appears be more bullish on Pepsi given its greater potential for cost savings, more consistent performance from its bottler and the headstart it will have in consolidating its distribution system.

"Coke is considered an emerging market and international growth stock -- but this deal takes overseas revenues from 74 percent of total to 54 percent," said Barclays Capital analyst Michael Branca.

Another consequence of the deal is that about half of Coke's revenue will come from bottling drinks, which has slimmer profit margins than its business now of selling beverage syrup.

Coke's "impressive financial metrics," such as operating margin, net margin and return on invested capital, "should all compress," Branca said in a research note. He pulled Coke from his Consumer Staples "Favorites" list, but not PepsiCo.

Coke's deal is not expected to close until October. "In the interim, we believe PepsiCo will begin to reap the rewards of its actions in the very short term," he said.

With food brands such as Frito-Lay, Quaker and Rice-A-Roni, PepsiCo has more ways to consolidate its distribution and cut costs. Plus its footprint was already more concentrated in North America.

At the same time, Coke might be more at risk when it comes to execution, said Edward Jones analyst Jack Russo.